Patrolling and Unrest

[momfreeek]

0-7, 8-22, 23-30

8-23 covers the median 50%, even though 8 feels quite extreme to me. It would take a lot of tests to clean out coincidental randomness but I'm not enough of a statistician to quantify that. Results or it never happened!

[John_Madlock]

Originally Posted by momfreeek

Results or it never happened!

OK, so here is my test.
Dominium 10, Order 3 (less events), Grow 3. Events rare (even less ugly events XD), Independents 9 (so easy AI Caelum will stuck in his capitol and I have a lot of time). EA Ermor (because has nice all 10 points units).

Patrol: Pontifex (10 precision, 10 AP), 9 Hastatus or Accensus (10 precision, 10 AP). 1 star experience gives +1 precision, I know this, so I check every unit and replace them with fresh troops if needed.
So this is always 10 points patrol

My methodology:
1 - patrol with 200% tax, if no increase/decrease events - note how many kills
2 - patrol with 0% tax, just to drop down unrest to 0. I didn't note kills here, because 0% tax make unrest to 0 and it is zero kills anyway. Those all zeros below (and all kills) are from point 1.
3 - if unrest is 0 - back to step 1.

Results:
9, 4, 0, 8, 0, 9, 0, 1, 9, 3, 10 (wow, so 9 was not the maximum), 7, 0, 0, 10, 0
OK, stop, I'm bored XD
No events happened.

Bad formula, bugged RNG, bad test, my bugged hardware?

[jotwebe]

Well, I did a test with LA Man. I've patrolled one province wih a magister (destealh should be 26) and another with two foresters (destealh two times 16.4, so make that 32) for about 40 turns. Both provinces taxed a 150%, so unrest generated was 10 points every turn. I've assumed unrest reducing destealh power by one point per 2 points of unrest, but that can't be exactly right, since the magister managed to reduce unrest a bit even when it was over 50 points. Generally unrest does seem to impact patrolling negatively, though.

Another problem of course is that while you can see the low rolls, when the patroller misses some unrest, but not how much better than the 10 points needed.

Anyway, I've expected the magister to succeed about 0.6 (16/26) of the time, and the two foresters 0.7 (22/32). What I got was 0.67 for the magister and 0.63 for the foresters. that's close enough to what's expected for me.

tl;dr:

the wiki is right

[jotwebe]

Edit: ninja'd again.

Anyway according to the wiki commanders get +20 to prec and move points before division by 20, so your pontife shuld have been wrh 3 points and your 9 dudes 1 each, for 12 vs. 10 points of unrest. Maybe the wiki is wrong about those commander bonuses?

[Soyweiser]

Originally Posted by jotwebe

Edit: ninja'd again.

Anyway according to the wiki commanders get +20 to prec and move points before division by 20, so your pontife shuld have been wrh 3 points and your 9 dudes 1 each, for 12 vs. 10 points of unrest. Maybe the wiki is wrong about those commander bonuses?

The wiki isn't wrong. Your reading comprehension is . (I wrote that part of the wiki, and tested it using the debuggin tools from dom3, the log files then list the destealth values. Which baffled me for some time, until I figured out that commanders get double their skills).

Commanders get a double bonus. Not +20. So if their prec is 1 they count as having prec 2. Not prec 21.

The patrol bonusses count just as one point of patrol (which means they count as 20 before dividing by 20 ).

[jotwebe]

Yeah, I had a raging headache when I was writing that, and it was an off-the-cuff reply based on what I remembered from reading the wiki a couple of hours earlier. So it got a bit muddled.