Scenario: Russian Invasion of the Baltic States

[shahadi]

A political solution may exist.

However, if you were tasked with putting together a response to a Russian invasion is I think most interesting for this forum to consider.

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[IronDuke99]

Originally Posted by shahadi

A political solution may exist.

However, if you were tasked with putting together a response to a Russian invasion is I think most interesting for this forum to consider.

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I would still say don't bother. The Baltics are not defensible by NATO, in conventional terms, as of now.

What is more they could only be, perhaps, defensible if all Western European NATO nations increased their defence spending by at least 50% and the US made it a priority. Neither of which is very likely to happen.

[shahadi]

Originally Posted by IronDuke99

I would still say don't bother. The Baltics are not defensible by NATO, in conventional terms, as of now.

What is more they could only be, perhaps, defensible if all Western European NATO nations increased their defence spending by at least 50% and the US made it a priority. Neither of which is very likely to happen.

You maybe right about the Baltics being indefensible.

So, let's say they can not be defended by Nato or by themselves, then a scenario, a timed objective, of a Russian airborne assualt, say a company tasked to secure a com station at a crossroads, or a bridge maybe just what the doctor ordered.

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[Grant1pa]

Originally Posted by shahadi

You maybe right about the Baltics being indefensible.

So, let's say they can not be defended by Nato or by themselves, then a scenario, a timed objective, of a Russian airborne assualt, say a company tasked to secure a com station at a crossroads, or a bridge maybe just what the doctor ordered.

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Sorry I came into this discussion late. As for the Baltic States being indefensible I would imagine that historically (and currently) this would be an accurate statement. The terrain offers immense opportunities for defense, but also affords open terrain for the offense (especially in the current infrastructure).

However, I don't consider the question of defensibility is pertinent to the potential of "if" it may occur. There are distinct strategic incentives for the Russians to stabilize their Baltic border, especially considering the Kaliningrad Oblast. Much as the Crimea gained tactical and strategic importance with the current Russian/Ukraine conflict, the Baltic states face similar pressure on the northern borders.

In gaming perspective, I consider the northern states a ripe zone for scenarios and I've spent much of my time focused on this region (Baltics, Finland, Norway). Perhaps it's my penchant for history, but history has a habit of repeating itself.

I believe the intrinsic forces in the Baltic would put up fierce resistance (much as seen in the Ukraine) but differing from the south, would soon be overrun due to their lack of substantive armor, air or anti-armor capabilities. Hence, in my scenarios, NATO falls into a support role with unfavorable odds.

In what I've developed to date, US participation is gauged on those rapid response units (GRF) able to deploy in theatre in 36-48 hours. Not a happy concept when you consider what we can conceivably get there quickest.

I have a second US scenario about ready to post (still not happy with it yet) based on this concept.

But, this is an interesting area and full of potential in this forum's context.

Tom