I am not sure you understand how ERA works, I agree in very rare cases it can work to well, but they are rare I have done 2 AARs just because of that. However I have done AARs on other extraordinary results like the M60 Patton that survived 3 turns of concentrated CM arty for the loss of a track & still manged to fire & kill my tank.
This is just observation not testing
The ERA number represents the amount of coverage & it is reduced by 1 if its hit, so high ERA is far better than low 8 > 7 still good coverage. 4 > 3 poor to bad.
Then there is the chance for it to stop the shot which we will deal with later.
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eg: an US M2A3+ Bradley fitted with M19 ARAT ERA on it's side hull can defeat up to 4 HEAT type weapons
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The chances of one shot being intercepted by the ERA is unlikely, 2 being stopped on the same facing is extreme as now it only has 3 ERA left.
I am not going to do the maths but the way probability works the chance of the 2nd hit is very low.
With 8 ERA the chance of the next hit being on the 7 ERA is not bad but the odds are falling rapidly for every extra hit on the era, 6 hits on the era is probably well over a million to one chance. But hey it happens sometimes people do win the lottery on occasion.
We will talk about Advanced ERA
There are at least 2 types of warhead, standard & advanced, modern missiles & some RPG are advanced where as most older stuff is standard
A ERA stops virtually all standard warheads if they hit it
Conversely
A ERA is nearly always defeated by an advanced warhead virtually negating the A ERA
Also as a side note modern ATGMs seem more likely to defeat close in weapon systems than old ones.
This represents the swings between technologies just like tanks increase armour & penetration to defeat it
It also means ERA is more effective vs "Second Rate Armies" outdated equipment be it a tank SAM RPG or missile just is not as effective they need the countermeasure which is in game terms the advanced warhead.
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even an all mighty Hellfire A with 105 penetration
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The Hellfire A is definetly a standard warhead in the game, the other missile the Apache fires a top attack TOW I think is an advanced warhead & I cant remember what the Hellfire B is.
This means if it hits the ERA it is indeed stopped most of the time. However this is fairly irrelevant as Russian tanks with high ERA numbers also have a front heat facing rating around the 105 you mentioned so I would expect mainly no effect or damage with some kills unless it hit the top.
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As of right now a T-72BM can survive indefinite amount of hits from 120mm M1A1s due to etc etc
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Indeed in the game it covers 50% so normally it will either miss the ERA or hit it once, ignoring the roll to see if it stopped it the tank now has 40% coverage.
The maths for the probability of the two hits is the sum of them both occurring which actually means the chance of scoring 2 consecutive hits is way below 40%. 27% at a guess but then we have to adjust that factor by the probability that both rounds were stopped to so we are probably down to 20% or less.
Just guessing if somebody wants to do the maths feel free.
HOWEVER it makes very little diffrence as the gun on the M1A1 is simply not up to the job, be thankfull its far better than the previous pea shooter which was diabolical.
The T-72BM only needs its kontact at close range medium to long range its safe without it. The T-72B is a diffrent animal with far lower heat & armour ratings & it to has ERA but I think its only basic,
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The first TOW to be fitted with a Tandem HEAT warhead was the TOW-2A which was introduced in 88.
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Have you tested this in game the B definetly has an advanced warhead & I am pretty sure the A does to. For the A the ERA is fairly irrelevant anyway from the front as it struggles to penetrate. The B is a diffrent matter as its a top attacker & hence overkill. If the ERA or close in defence dont stop it your dead.
As I say this is all subjective from watching when I play the game & but my take on things as they stand with A ERA
I have had a long break from the game so points 1 + 2 could just be my memory playing tricks.
1)Standard warheads could in fact get through a bit more often possibly
2)Advanced warheads could be stopped a bit more frequently
3)AP should get through more frequently, advanced warheads seem to have a far better chance of defeating it.
Possibly putting 2 or 3 classes based on gun warhead or penetration or one class with warhead being used as a modifier on the chance of getting through
Say XXX plus 3 x warhead that way bigger guns have more chance of defeating than auto cannons.
Real pain if each weapon has to be done individually rather than just a routine.
The AP thing is the only real problem as there tends to be a lot more of it flying about